A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
